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How the war on AIDS was lost

There was an alarming article in the Wall Street Journal on the reverses of previous advances in AIDS prevention in Uganda, plus running out of US funding for AIDS treatment.

The war on AIDS is being lost. Here are the facts:

  1. There were an estimated 2.7 million new infections worldwide in 2008; 1.9 million of them were in Sub-Saharan Africa.  The number of people added to treatment each year is also increasing rapidly, but not rapidly enough to keep up with new infections. Worldwide in 2008, 1.1 million people were added to treatment; 825,000 of them in Sub-Saharan Africa.
  2. New global funding for AIDS has grown rapidly over the past decade, but funding from the US government for major programs  PEPFAR and the Global Fund (a large portion of total AIDS funding)  now appears to be leveling off.

Despite the goal of “universal access to treatment” (a Millennium Development target that was supposed to be met by 2010),  only 44% of people in need of ARV treatment in Sub-Saharan Africa were actually receiving it. Now, as the WSJ story and other reports document, sick people are being turned away without treatment, and many who contract HIV in the future will have no hope of treatment.

Last year the WHO country representative in South Africa warned that “At the rate we are going, with new [HIV] infections rising it will be almost impossible … to keep providing free treatment to those who need it.”

How did this enormous tragedy occur? Perhaps because the global health community concentrated on AIDS treatment and neglected prevention (which they never figured out how to do). As was pointed out by David Roodman in Monday’s blog post, public attention and activism is a finite resource. In AIDS, virtually all of it was spent on treatment (led by the 3 Bs – Bono, Bill Clinton, and Bill Gates – and 1 W) and very little on prevention.

Despite AIDS  getting unprecedented amounts of funding, funding was never going to be unlimited.   So there was going to a treatment funding crisis sooner or later, as Mead Over recently pointed out.

This current crisis was anticipated by writers like Helen Epstein, Daniel Halperin, David Canning, and Over. All have issued pleas for emphasizing AIDS prevention and given practical advice on doing prevention. All have been ignored.

Will there at last be a new war on AIDS that emphasizes prevention, that saves the next generation?

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19 Comments

  1. Felix Kitaka wrote:

    What I don’t get is why all the geniuses in the world can’t come up with a cure for AIDS.

    Posted February 4, 2010 at 2:00 am | Permalink
  2. Duncan Bayne wrote:

    It’s easier to focus on treatment when the Catholic Church is fighting tooth and nail against prevention.

    Posted February 4, 2010 at 2:03 am | Permalink
  3. Another Duncan wrote:

    Can’t quite make sense of your stats here. The missing number is how many people die from AIDS each year. If that is more than 1.6 million (the gap between new infections and people being put on treatment), then overall prevalence is falling, not rising. In general, of course, the spread of treatment actually increases prevalence by keeping people alive.

    Posted February 4, 2010 at 2:11 am | Permalink
  4. Simon Collery wrote:

    You’re right, prevention has been ignored, so any drops in prevalence and even incidence so far have been related to the natural disease dynamics. This has been obvious for a long time so HIV will continue to spread and people will continue to suffer and die until prevention receives the attention and resources it needs. And I don’t mean half hearted prevention, like ABC, circumcision and expensive but ultimately useless marketing campaigns.

    Posted February 4, 2010 at 2:39 am | Permalink
  5. Joe McLoughlin wrote:

    AIDS is a much smaller problem than the UN makes it out to be. Most people in Africa are dying of the same diseases they have always died of. The HIV test is a racist test – black people (both in the US and in Africa) will test ‘positive’ disproportionately than white people. There are many things that can trigger a ‘positive’ result.

    http://www.amazon.com/Origin-Persistence-Failings-AIDS-Theory/dp/0786430486

    The idea that AIDS is a pandemic is a horrific mistake. If you want to save lives, the money being spent on ARVs in Africa would be better spent on providing clean water and anti-malaria treatments. Of course the pharmaceutical companies (and those who have shares in them) want any money for AIDS to be spent on pharmaceuticals.

    Am I a ‘denialist’? Well, most of my friends are on AIDS, and are doing well on ARVs. Does that mean that AIDS is caused by HIV? Nope. Does that mean that the people in Africa are dying from being infected with HIV? Nope. Does it mean that ARVs are the best way of saving lives in Africa? Nope.

    Maybe when we are all in our dotage we’ll find scientists are finally discovering these truths. Everybody is far too willing to see this crisis in the terms that the mass media frame it.

    Either you believe that a hitherto unknown virus has managed to appear from nowhere, and is basically beyond cure. (More money has been spent on HIV research than on all other diseases put together, and still they can’t say how ‘it’ kills us, nor find a cure). Or you are a ‘denialist’.

    The framing of this issue does not easily allow one to take a middle ground.

    Posted February 4, 2010 at 4:43 am | Permalink
  6. avam wrote:

    This post is all about the need for other methods when looking at development issues (in this case aids prevention). Here is a quote from a review of Epstein’s book:

    (Quote) “Epstein, a public health specialist and molecular biologist who has worked on AIDS vaccine research, overturns many of our received notions about why AIDS is rampant in Africa and what to do about it. She charges that Western governments and philanthropists, though well-meaning, have been wholly misguided, and that Africans themselves, who understand their own cultures, often know best how to address HIV in their communities. Most significant is Epstein’s discussion of concurrent sexual relations in Africa. Africans often engage in two or three long-term concurrent relationships—which proves more conducive to the spread of AIDS than Western-style promiscuity. Persuade Africans to forgo concurrency for monogamy, and the infection rate plummets, as it did in Uganda in the mid-1990s. On the other hand, ad campaigns focused on condom use helped imply falsely that only prostitutes and truck drivers get AIDS. In addition, Epstein examines what she calls the “African earthquake”: social and economic upheaval that have also eased the spread of HIV. Epstein is a lucid writer, translating abstruse scientific concepts into language nonspecialists can easily grasp. Provocative, passionate and incisive, this may be the most important book on AIDS published this year—indeed, it may even save lives”

    I agree. And not to beat a dead horse, but this further illustrates the root of some of the criticisms of an earlier post on the ‘resource curse’ and the shortcomings of a development economic-centric approach. That is to say, the vastly important role that culture plays and the need for qualitative/ethnographic data, as well as numbers, in ascertaining relationships not easily reducible to one-stop approaches/initiatives.

    Posted February 4, 2010 at 5:41 am | Permalink
  7. avam wrote:

    “How did this enormous tragedy occur?” sorry, I’m confused – I just read a few of these articles cited and it seems to me, that there is a shift in thinking happening – not unlike what Halperin suggests (as an Aids expert) in the 2008 NTYimes op-ed.

    Clearly – any situation where people are dying is a tragedy – be it unsafe water (biggest killer), malnutrition, conflict, natural disasters or aids….but from a, albeit, brief reading of the cited articles just now, the emphasis seems to be on reducing large amounts of straight funding to a focus on more long-term outcomes – essentially what Aidwatch supports surely?

    Also, taking into account context – Michael Allen – the writer of the WSJ piece is a journalist, a very good one I am sure, but a journalist no less. So no matter how good he is, he is not going to be an expert on Aids, and he is going to be looking for the story/narrative that best describes what he sees happening. A story that – as Halperin and Epstein point out is not necessarily the whole story, or even the most correct one (assuming there is no single absolute ‘truth’). And if I am going to read about Aids, I would rather take my chances with an Aids public health expert, then a journalist working with an entirely separate agenda. (Note – I am not at all trying to disparage journalism, an occupation I very much respect – but there seems to me to be a disconnect in posting something based on a story by a journalist, and then citing Aids experts that do not really seem to support his argument as proof that the ‘war on aids’ has indeed been “lost”. Which implies its irrevocable and cannot ever be won, or indeed that a different, and in the end, better approach can be taken.)

    Posted February 4, 2010 at 6:20 am | Permalink
  8. avam wrote:

    Please excuse 3 posts in a row – not trying to spam! But re Joe McLoughlin; it may be true that other illnesses can trigger a positive result and certainly there are clearly going to be issues (in some form) with pharmaceuticals as they are, in the end, there to make money. But it’s important to note that Harry H Bauer who wrote “The Origin, Persistence and Failings of HIV/AIDS Theory” also believes Aids is not sexually transmitted….a pretty substantial core failing in his overall theory wouldn’t you agree?

    “In his 2007 book, The Origins, Persistence, and Failings of HIV/AIDS Theory,[19] Bauer questions whether HIV exists, claiming that HIV tests are not accurate and that AIDS death statistics are faked by a conspiracy of the media, scientists and pharmaceutical companies. Bauer claims that African Americans are more sexually promiscuous and use more illegal drugs than other groups, but says sex and drug use are not involved in AIDS since, according to him, Native Americans are also sexually promiscuous and have high drug use but do not often test positive for HIV (p. 64). Bauer hypothesises that African Americans are more likely to test HIV-positive because of supposed genetic mutations.[19] As is the case for AIDS denialism in general, Bauer’s notions on HIV/AIDS and race are rejected by the mainstream scientific community, based upon decades of research and overwhelming scientific consensus that HIV exists, is infectious, causes AIDS, and that HIV tests are accurate.”

    Posted February 4, 2010 at 6:37 am | Permalink
  9. avam wrote:

    Final, final point (!) – can we start using other words than “war” (“Will there at last a new war on AIDS that emphasizes prevention, that saves the next generation?”)? Using “war” to describe a pro-active approach – esp in the context of development – seems to be both problematic and insensitive.

    Posted February 4, 2010 at 6:44 am | Permalink
  10. Word_Bandit wrote:

    Not sure focusing on Bono or Bill Gates here is productive or helpful ….

    fact is, many women are infected by a single man for many reasons, prostitution, domestic violence, rape, or simply being trusting.

    You fail to mention the known differences between male and female infections, and I think (though I may be wrong), the number is chilling.

    Since men use sex for a variety of reasons — control, power, pleasure, and women remain uneducated and vulnerable to their whims, I think laying this at the feet of your usual suspects is more than a stretch.

    There’s plenty of blame to go around in a man’s world …. Bill Clinton not the only one with penis (i.e. power) issues in the real “on the ground” world.

    Educating women and giving them the ability to say “no” or “wear this” and providing condemns still the best answer ….

    I think dragging in a bevy of educated specialists (primarily men) to pontificate in the abstract on lint in the tummy button is silly when the answer’s to be had on the ground with informed individuals (primarily women) equipped to say “over my dead body” far more effective and my guess, cost efficient.

    I am of course speaking of prevention, not drug administration for those already infected.

    Just this woman’s opinion …. and another dimension to the discussion.

    Posted February 4, 2010 at 9:21 am | Permalink
  11. Caitlin wrote:

    Bill & Laura,

    Thanks for highlighting some current issues around HIV/AIDS funding. However, I am unclear why you are making a false distinction between prevention and treatment. In many places, the availability of treatment makes prevention possible. This has been documented by organizations like Partners in Health but also by HIV affected communities around the world.

    You said the “global health community” never figured out how to do prevention — but many communities did, as Helen Epstein points out in her book. The conversation around why these gains were not sustained or brought elsewhere is a much more nuanced, complicated one. I would be happy to discuss some of these issues with you in person.

    I was surprised as someone who advocates for community solutions that in your entire post you only focused on “expert” figures like Gates, Clinton, and even those like Epstein and Pisani. Surely we know community leaders have put forth their own explanations for where we are today, and their voices were absent in your post.

    Additionally, as someone from the “next generation” — it’s not about “saving” young people, it’s about preventing new infections and providing treatment and support to young people living with HIV . UNAIDS estimates there are current 5.4 million young people living with HIV — and they need resources and support to have healthy sex lives, children if they choose and employment.

    If you wanted to know what young people are doing around prevention, why didn’t you just ask?

    Posted February 4, 2010 at 10:21 am | Permalink
  12. Unsurprised wrote:

    Having worked for more than two years in Swaziland, the country infamous for the world’s highest HIV prevalence, it’s fairly clear to me why the focus has been on treatment instead of prevention: treatment is easier. As complex as ART is, it still comes in pill form with simple instructions—take three times a day with meals.

    Prevention is much more difficult and met with resistance by political and religious leadership and—strikingly—by HIV positive activists who feel shamed by suggestions that others take personal responsibility for their sexual behavior.

    Prevention cannot be bought with aid dollars. It cannot be solved with procurement. The problem is NOT that more financial resources have gone to treatment rather than prevention, but that no one—especially local leadership—has ever been serious about sending the necessarily blunt and uncomfortable messages it takes to get people to change their sexual behaviors.

    HIV is not an issue of poverty, and in fact, we see empirically that HIV is a problem of poor countries, but not the poorest people within them and that economic collapse in Zimbabwe in fact slowed the spread of HIV. HIV is not just an issue of men cheating on their wives. In Swaziland, women were just as likely to have multiple partners as men and not just for transactional sex, but also because they are searching for love and companionship.

    HIV is about unprotected sex with infected individuals. But until we are willing to speak that truth and insist that people take personal responsibility for their sexual lives, we’ll keep digging holes in our budgets for perpetual ART and holes in the African soil for more young bodies.

    Posted February 4, 2010 at 11:40 am | Permalink
  13. Gregg Gonsalves wrote:

    Hi, Bill. So, you recently posted about HIV prevention vs. treatment.
    A few questions:
    1) ART can reduce viral load and transmissibility. In the absence of a vaccine or a microbicide and the difficulties in achieving behavior change in general in public health, can you afford to be so categorical about AIDS treatment? Might ART provision be an important
    part of HIV prevention strategies?
    2) You love to talk about big men: whether it’s Jeff Sachs or the 3Bs, and you fail acknowledge that most of the drive for treatment has been derived from local activism in Brazil and Thailand, first, then South Africa, then with help from activists most with small NGOs in the
    North. I worry this sets you up in a debate you’d like to have–with your peers, rather than ordinary people on the ground. You ignore your own “searchers”–the “little” people who have been building up the AIDS response for 30 years and invest all the power in the planners like the 3Bs who come late into the game….
    3) Bill Gates has never been a fan of ART–he has made statement after statement, prioritizing prevention, and the foundation doesn’t really focus on much in the way of treatment except for a long-standing program in Botswana.
    I’d love to sit down and chat one day–I don’t question your good intentions, but think your analysis refuses to integrate new information–the thesis has remained the same since White Man’s Burden. In science, we would say you have a “ruling theory,” to which data is appended over time to support, but other hypotheses are not really entertained.

    Posted February 4, 2010 at 1:22 pm | Permalink
  14. Justin wrote:

    The issue is not so much that we overemphasize treatment over prevention: we need, and do, both, and as Gregg points out they are actually complementary. The issue is that treatment is incredibly effective everywhere, but we still don’t know how to do prevention. There is still a lot of debate over what actually accounts for the Uganda decline in infections, but even if we could narrow down the cause, it may not be generalizable to other countries becuase of different patterns and cultural practices. And even in Uganda, the trend is reversing. So we still don’t know how to do prevention.

    There are only two ways the epidemic can end.
    1) New infections stop.
    2) A cure is found.

    So of course prevention is vital. But while we wait for an answer of how to do it effectively, treatment is a bonafide way to manage the problem. Oh, and save millions of lives.

    Posted February 4, 2010 at 2:33 pm | Permalink
  15. Jeff wrote:

    I agree with several of the previous commenters who note that you have not framed the issues well. HIV prevalence is down everywhere…how does that constitute losing the war on AIDS?? I agree that the approach of creating a global entitlement for ART was misguided. As was predictable, the money and goodwill is reaching its limits and we will struggle just to maintain the people on ART who have started them under the entitlement– including moving to more expensive second line treatments. That is the reason that new infections outpace people being put on ART. But there has not been the dramatic trade off with prevention. Treatment is complementary to prevention and prevention cannot be bought the same way treatment can. Epstein and Halperin correctly identified concurrent partnering as a driver of the African epidemic, but neither they nor anyone else has come up with a prevention method for reducing concurrent partnering.

    Posted February 5, 2010 at 2:24 am | Permalink
  16. kelly flamos wrote:

    As previously noted, prevention and treatment work together – this is true in the US and sub-Saharan Africa. Poverty, malaria, TB, limited access to clean water, gender inequality, homophobia – these issues are part of the equation, too.

    And nobody has mentioned the original “searchers” in the Ugandan response to HIV/AIDS – Dr. Kaleeba and The AIDS Support Organization (TASO). Learn more here: http://www.tasouganda.org

    Posted February 5, 2010 at 12:47 pm | Permalink
  17. TGGP wrote:

    Actually, medical efforts may have contributed to the spread of AIDs in Africa.

    Posted February 5, 2010 at 5:34 pm | Permalink
  18. Coca Colo wrote:

    One thing that frequently gets ignored is that the transmission rate of HIV is higher in Africa than in the US for any given sexual encounter. People think prevention is so difficult because they think the issue is that people in sub-Saharan Africa are more promiscuous or have more partners than people in the US. In reality, there are a number of other risk factors that increase the probability of transmission for a given sexual encounter, including other health problems, inter-generational relationships, low rates of circumcision, and a practice known as “dry sex” where women use herbs and other means to eliminate their body’s natural lubrication (and protection!). There are multiple potential interventions to change these risk factors, and many have been proven successful, such as the work by Dupas showing that educating Kenyan teens about the dangers of intergenerational-relationships (sugar daddies) decreased their incidence. You can read more about dry sex here.

    Posted February 6, 2010 at 7:37 pm | Permalink
  19. Facebook wrote:

    AIDS today, is the greatest threat of our age and our future. Must be stopped :(

    Posted February 7, 2010 at 9:21 am | Permalink

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