Dear Readers, Can you indulge me with a little survey?
Please tell me which you think is more probable:
(A) a country succeeds at economic development, or
(B) a country succeeds at economic development with a wise and capable leadership.
Please answer ONLY whether you think (A) or (B) is more probable, with no elaboration, just post a comment on this post saying “(A)” or “(B).”
Thanks, Bill Easterly
The Aid Watch blog is a project of New York University's Development Research Institute (DRI). This blog is principally written by William Easterly, author of "The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics" and "The White Man's Burden: Why the West's Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good," and Professor of Economics at NYU. It is co-written by Laura Freschi and by occasional guest bloggers. Our work is based on the idea that more aid will reach the poor the more people are watching aid.
“Conscience is the inner voice that warns us somebody may be looking.” - H.L. Mencken
© New York University
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225 Comments
B
B
A
This is called the “Linda problem” in psychology. By the laws of probability, A and B has probability less than or equal to the probability of A alone or B alone.
B
(A)
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(A)
a
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This still looks like data engineering to me.
p A > p (A+B)
A
B
Though I must condition with my interpretation of wise and capable leadership – knowing when to be involved in development and when to get out of the way.
A
A
B
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a
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A and B are the same.
This is the famous Tversky & Kahneman example of the bank teller vs feminist bank teller. An example of value substitution.