Dear Readers, Can you indulge me with a little survey?
Please tell me which you think is more probable:
(A) a country succeeds at economic development, or
(B) a country succeeds at economic development with a wise and capable leadership.
Please answer ONLY whether you think (A) or (B) is more probable, with no elaboration, just post a comment on this post saying “(A)” or “(B).”
Thanks, Bill Easterly
225 Comments
B
B
A
This is called the “Linda problem” in psychology. By the laws of probability, A and B has probability less than or equal to the probability of A alone or B alone.
B
(A)
B
B
(A)
a
A
A
This still looks like data engineering to me.
p A > p (A+B)
A
B
Though I must condition with my interpretation of wise and capable leadership – knowing when to be involved in development and when to get out of the way.
A
A
B
B
A
a
A
A
A
A and B are the same.
This is the famous Tversky & Kahneman example of the bank teller vs feminist bank teller. An example of value substitution.