Comments on: Maybe we should put rats in charge of foreign aid research

By: Ronan L

Ronan L — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 07:54:07 +0000

“this is very hard to enforce since nobody is watching when a researcher runs multiple regressions”

Perhaps one day, when life is almost entirely online, this will no longer be an issue. All regressions done by a researcher or a research time would be done through cloud computing, so there would be a record, open for all to see.

Alternatively, what about ethical regressing, in line with ethical investing? Researchers could voluntarily keep a log, open for anyone to examine.

Or what about opensource research? A researcher would make their regression code available for anyone to use and improve…

By: Amanda

Amanda — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 05:24:03 +0000

two recent developments (links below) related to mcc and your post above, and also perhaps to your agoa post. mcc is considering stopping aid in nicaragua and even stopped aid in madagascar based on 'good environment' criteria it set at the outset. (or mada could be related to the same reasons that agoa might be cut, but we wont know that.) while i think mcc should be applauded for considering stopping aid programming based on objective criteria, too bad this criteria is related to the 'good policy environment' evidence described above rather than whether the program is working. are you planning a post on good stats or stories about stopping programs because they didnt work? http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0609/p06s10-woam.html http://www.mcc.gov/press/releases/documents/release-051909-mccboardauthorizes.php

By: Doug Johnson

Doug Johnson — Fri, 15 May 2009 19:56:13 +0000

All good points, but I think you overstate the case that the primary motivation for the creation of the MCC was the Burnside and Dollar result. The other main argument for the MCC was that it would, potentially, create a set of incentives for countries to pursue good policies. I don’t claim to know what went on inside former president Bush’s and his advisors’ heads when they decided to create the MCC, but if you take their statements at face value, the potential incentive effect played a much larger role in their thinking. (Check out Bush’s original speech announcing the creation of the MCC — the word “reward” is used multiple times while the Burnside and Dollar result is only alluded to in passing.)

Not that the incentive argument is that compelling either, but then again, you have to allocate aid on the basis of something, right? At least adhering to a strict set of rules reduces the degree to which aid is allocated on the basis of foreign policy priorities which, I think, is a good thing.

By: Aid Watch

Aid Watch — Tue, 12 May 2009 19:17:36 +0000

Top 10 reasons to test “War, Guns, and Votes” for data mining

By William Easterly With a previous post on data mining, let’s examine one recent book as a possible candidate for tests of whether data mining could be a problem. Here are the top 10 reasons I chose this book: Oodles…

By: Andrew Duguay

Andrew Duguay — Tue, 12 May 2009 01:46:40 +0000

My econometrics professor at Gordon college drilled into us the importance of avoiding data mining. For my final paper,

found here…

http://andrewduguay.xanga.com/weblog/

I used one of the tactics of proof of validating a regression by attempting to update a study done by Paul Collier back in 2001. Using ethnic fractionalization data produced from William Easterly and Alberto Alesina I ran regressions for economic growth with democracy and diversity as right side variables. Interestingly enough, I found his results didn’t quite stand alone when using more up-to-date data in Africa. However, taking into account trade made the other variables relavant.

I may not be a master econometrician, but I agree with Easterly that an important part of validating research is to test it over time.

By: Sceptical Secondo

Sceptical Secondo — Mon, 11 May 2009 07:24:32 +0000

Data mining, dredging, jibbering … is merely a symptom of the key problem with a widespread misconceptualisation and use of statistics in the social sciences: the identification of timeless effects of isolated factors.

By: Steve Roth

Steve Roth — Mon, 11 May 2009 04:38:13 +0000

I’m kind of dismayed to see people quibbling about terminology rather than discussing the best ways to feed our human judgments with statistical methods and presentations that more accurately (or usefully) represent reality.

I’m assuming that others (like I) have some issues with Easterly’s positions on aid and development overall. But still. Spend your time talking about what matters.

By: Alex F

Alex F — Sun, 10 May 2009 15:28:15 +0000

Wow, weird commenters today. I’d never heard the term “data dredging” before, but here’s Wikipedia on it:

>>Data dredging (data fishing, data snooping) is the inappropriate (sometimes deliberately so) search for ’statistically significant’ relationships in large quantities of data. This activity was formerly known in the statistical community as data mining, but that term is now in widespread use with an essentially positive meaning, so the pejorative term data dredging is now used instead.

So… William Easterly is using the term “data mining” in the common sense of the term that everyone has heard and understands, and some computer scientists / machine learning guys are dropping by to tell us that they invented a new word for that since they wanted to appropriate “data mining” for themselves. OK. Thanks guys. (Now you can go off and edit the Wikipedia page so that it says that “data mining” was never used for this, and that only ignoramuses have ever used that term when they meant “data dredging”.)

By: Grant Czerepak

Grant Czerepak — Sat, 09 May 2009 20:02:52 +0000

I think it is wise to realize that we are not the end in a “chain of being” we are simply the end product on one of many branches of evolution. Every organism alive today is equally advanced as we are. And each organism is suited to survive in its niche. So, it is no surprise that each organism will out perform us in its niche.

Don’t be distracted by the “data mining” red herring.

By: Javed Alam

Javed Alam — Sat, 09 May 2009 19:23:36 +0000

and Chimpanzees beat human in short memory tasks http://bit.ly/Nltpx We are losing out to animal kingdom.